![]() ![]() “The escalator is only going up,” said Mike McPhaden, a senior scientist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They may look taller or shorter, but they’re still heading in the same direction. To understand the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña in the overall context of climate change, think of a person on a rising escalator, either standing on tiptoe or squatting. Still, even if the world dodges a major El Niño this year, climate-induced stresses will continue grow with the increasing amount of greenhouse gases blanketing the planet. “In the middle of an El Niño year, where you expect a drought, you can have a big storm and have a flood.” These climate phenomena are “never black and white,” said Walter Baethgen, a senior research scientist at Columbia University’s International Research Institute. No two El Niños are alike, and the effects of this cycle will hinge on its duration, intensity, and timing. ![]() Photographer: Raphael Alves/AFP/Getty Images Growing Stresses Very high temperatures also increase the risk of heart attacks, strokes and injuries at work.Ĭracked bed of the Aleixo Lake affected by a drought, near Manaus, Brazil, in October 2015. Heat stroke can lead to severe neurological damage and even be fatal. Outages are disruptive regardless of the weather during intense heatwaves, blackouts can have life-or-death consequences. Solar farms go dark just as electricity demand peaks in hot summer evenings, and drought constrains the use of hydroelectric power. The rapid switch to renewable energy in many countries has added to the risk of blackouts. While El Niño typically means fewer Atlantic hurricanes, and therefore less disruption to oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico, most of the US is still facing elevated blackout risks this summer in the event of widespread extreme heat, according to a recent warning from the North American Electric Reliability Corp., the regulatory body overseeing power grid stability. “Increasing volatility in weather will lead to higher risks and frequency of energy security events,” said Saul Kavonic, head of integrated energy and resources research at Credit Suisse Group AG, referring to blackouts triggered by fuel shortages. That stokes higher demand for fuel, including coal and gas. “Central banks are more limited in what they can do.” Expected Impacts of El Niño on Global WeatherĪs temperatures rise, power grids across the world strain to keep up. While policy interventions tend to manipulate demand, El Niños typically affect supply. ![]() “With the world grappling with high inflation and recession risk, the arrival of the El Niño comes at exactly the wrong time,” said Bhargavi Sakthivel, an economist for Bloomberg Economics based in London. The Reserve Bank of India said it is carefully watching the climate phenomenon Peru announced in March that it plans to spend more than $1 billion to counter climate and weather effects this year. It also adds to the dreaded risk of stagflation, in which inflation stays high even as the economy contracts. They also hit growth to gross domestic product, especially in Brazil, Australia, India and other vulnerable countries.Ĭombined with more extreme weather and hotter temperatures due to accelerated climate change, the stage is now set for the world’s costliest El Niño cycle since meteorologists started keeping track. Crops are lost, roads are flooded and homes are destroyed.Īccording to Bloomberg Economics modeling, previous El Niños resulted in a marked impact on global inflation, adding 3.9 percentage points to non-energy commodity prices and 3.5 points to oil. Extreme heat creates public health emergencies, while drought adds to fire risks. Power grids strain and blackouts become more frequent. ![]() The shift to a warming phase from the cooler La Niña can generate chaos, especially in fast-growing emerging economies. As the world struggles to recover from Covid-19 and Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, the arrival of the first El Niño in almost four years foreshadows new damage to an already fragile global economy. ![]()
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